War averted?
The new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) brings the reassuring news that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003, but the report raises as many questions as it answers. Note that while the full NIE will remain classified, the declassified "key findings" are available on the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's website.
The most obvious question is why the report contradicts previous reports, like the 2005 NIE which described Iran as "determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure." [Washington Post] The intelligence community has not revealed the nature of the new information behind the shift, but it should not be surprising that the outlook has been blurry, given that the US has "few actual spies on the ground and no consular presence in Tehran, relying on satellite imagery and intercepts." [cfr.org] It seems that Tehran may be more concerned about international pressure than it has let on.
The second big question is whether this new NIE should be considered credible, when so much of our intelligence has been shaky during the last few years. There's a temptation to hail the report as a sign that the intelligence community is becoming more independent from the White House than it was during the pre-Iraq era, and while that might be the case, there's no way to know whether that is the case at this point.
Third, there's the issue of whether Iran could restart the covert weapons program it had until late 2003. The report expresses "high confidence" that, even if Iran restarted its program now, it could not produce enough plutonium for a nuclear weapon until 2015. However, some observers have pointed out that Iran could always get plutonium from another source.
Finally, one has to wonder how much (and how long) Bush and the neocons have known about the intelligence community's newly-declassified findings, especially considering the bellicose tone they have often taken during the last two years.
"[President Bush] said he was first told about the new information in August by Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, but not in detail because analysts needed to evaluate it before intelligence agencies reached a formal consensus last week. He made clear it did not change his view and would not have changed his rhetoric, including his October warning about the possibility of World War III if Iran builds nuclear weapons." [Washington Post]
PDF of November 2007 NIE's "Key Findings" [odni.gov]
Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder on the NIE [cfr.org]
"U.S. Renews Efforts to Keep Coalition Against Tehran" [Washington Post]
The most obvious question is why the report contradicts previous reports, like the 2005 NIE which described Iran as "determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure." [Washington Post] The intelligence community has not revealed the nature of the new information behind the shift, but it should not be surprising that the outlook has been blurry, given that the US has "few actual spies on the ground and no consular presence in Tehran, relying on satellite imagery and intercepts." [cfr.org] It seems that Tehran may be more concerned about international pressure than it has let on.
The second big question is whether this new NIE should be considered credible, when so much of our intelligence has been shaky during the last few years. There's a temptation to hail the report as a sign that the intelligence community is becoming more independent from the White House than it was during the pre-Iraq era, and while that might be the case, there's no way to know whether that is the case at this point.
Third, there's the issue of whether Iran could restart the covert weapons program it had until late 2003. The report expresses "high confidence" that, even if Iran restarted its program now, it could not produce enough plutonium for a nuclear weapon until 2015. However, some observers have pointed out that Iran could always get plutonium from another source.
Finally, one has to wonder how much (and how long) Bush and the neocons have known about the intelligence community's newly-declassified findings, especially considering the bellicose tone they have often taken during the last two years.
"[President Bush] said he was first told about the new information in August by Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, but not in detail because analysts needed to evaluate it before intelligence agencies reached a formal consensus last week. He made clear it did not change his view and would not have changed his rhetoric, including his October warning about the possibility of World War III if Iran builds nuclear weapons." [Washington Post]
PDF of November 2007 NIE's "Key Findings" [odni.gov]
Council on Foreign Relations Backgrounder on the NIE [cfr.org]
"U.S. Renews Efforts to Keep Coalition Against Tehran" [Washington Post]
posted at 10:32:00 PM | permalink
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