Pentagon war games predicted trouble in Iraq

On the eve of the election, the National Security Archive has released documents from "Desert Crossing," a series of war games conducted by the Pentagon during 1999, which predicted that regime change in Iraq could have dire consequences. Gen. Anthony Zinni (ret.), who conducted the war games, warned the Bush Administration to review them prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The response? According to Zinni: "They said, 'What's that? Never heard of it.' "

According to the National Security Archive:

The report forewarned that regime change may cause regional instability by opening the doors to "rival forces bidding for power" which, in turn, could cause societal "fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines" and antagonize "aggressive neighbors." Further, the report illuminated worries that secure borders and a restoration of civil order may not be enough to stabilize Iraq if the replacement government were perceived as weak, subservient to outside powers, or out of touch with other regional governments. An exit strategy, the report said, would also be complicated by differing visions for a post-Saddam Iraq among those involved in the conflict. [National Security Archive]

In other Iraq news, Military Times has printed an editorial calling for Rumsfeld to step down, regardless of what happens in the election tomorrow. [Army Times] I recently seconded Andrew Sullivan's nomination of Lindsey Graham as Rumsfeld's replacement.

Finally, on a positive note for the Bush administration, it can claim an Iraqi court's sentencing of Saddam Hussein to death as a victory of sorts, although it is unclear how it will effect the situation on the ground in Iraq. [TIME] Nothing will convince me that invading Iraq was a good idea, but seeing Saddam Hussein being tried and punished for his crimes against humanity is an undeniably good thing.